Research / Weekly Pre-IPO Stock Secondary Market Update
Weekly Pre-IPO Stock Secondary Market Update | August 27, 2026
Flock = Safety vs Data Privacy; Reed Jobs Aims to Treat Cancer; Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face; Oura Ring IPO
Companies covered: Flock Safety, Oura, Hugging Face
The public fight over Flock Safety is being framed as a debate about whether data gets captured, and that framing is already obsolete. Flock reports its technology helped locate more than 10,000 missing people in 2025, a figure that spans dementia patients who wandered from home to children in the back of stolen vehicles, and these systems are being voted in by elected city councils rather than imposed from above. The legitimate objection is not capture but misuse, and the reported instances of individual officers querying the network to track former partners are exactly the failure mode that matters. If we can be intellectually honest ... a significant portion of our personal data is freely given to multiple private companies in return for free services (e.g. social media platforms, gmail, corporate employee agreements to track laptop/cell phone activity, etc). The correct mental model is the existing relationship between device makers and law enforcement, where the data exists but a subpoena stands between the state and the record. We would extend the same logic forward: within a few years the always-on assumption will be so widely internalized, first through workplace tooling and then through personal AI assistants, that consent becomes a formality. For investors, that means the durable value in this category sits in access controls, audit trails, and defensible governance rather than in camera count.
Oura is reportedly preparing an IPO at roughly a $16 billion valuation alongside a raise in the $3 billion range, which would put nearly 19% of the company on the market in a single print. The revenue trajectory supports a premium: approximately $1 billion in 2025 revenue, up 100% from $500 million the prior year, against a Whoop mark near $6 billion. The instinctive bear case is that Apple simply integrates the functionality into the Apple Watch and compresses the category, and that risk is real, but it misreads what is being bought. Oura sells a subscription against a proprietary longitudinal health dataset, with a genuine niche in women's health around cycle and menopause tracking that the generalist wearables have not matched. The unlock we would underwrite toward is proactive rather than descriptive: wearable data piped continuously to a physician with an AI layer monitoring for exceptions, which is the difference between a dashboard and a product that calls 911. Consider the case of a woman in her twenties who suffered a brain aneurysm and lay unattended for twelve hours; that gap is the product opportunity, and it is not in the current roadmap. We would size this as a software and data business rather than hardware, and we would expect the multiple to re-rate materially when the first credible proactive intervention feature ships.
Hugging Face is reportedly in acquisition talks at approximately $13 billion, up from a $4.5 billion mark in 2023, a 2.9x step in roughly three years. The business is poorly understood because it is technical rather than consumer-facing: model hosting, proprietary datasets, training infrastructure, and the default distribution layer for open-source AI. [We now know Nvidia is the acquirer.]
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