Weekly Pre-IPO Stock Secondary Market Update | November 3, 2026

AWS is reportedly fully sold out of compute through 2027 and mostly sold out through 2028, which we see as clear evidence that demand remains ahead of capacity. Public markets keep questioning whether neoclouds can fund their buildouts, but we do not see how that skepticism sits alongside an inability to get Amazon compute until 2028. We agree the hard part is pricing a company that is already at full capacity for years, even if Amazon keeps taking share. Data center build timelines and demand timelines are not the same, and the market worry is that capital floods into projects and then demand plateaus into an overbuild. We do not think we are close to that cycle. In our view we are still in the first inning, and sold-out capacity into 2028 while still early points to years before a real overbuild conversation.

Anduril is developing BlueChip, a security-focused laptop with Qualcomm, and we see it as an ambitious expansion beyond defense technology into personal computing. The initial focus on government, police and other public-sector users fits Anduril's existing business, while the emphasis on domestic manufacturing addresses an important market need. The move also fits a founder willingness to build personal electronics, alongside the ModRetro gaming device. We would not be surprised to see a phone or other personal technology products follow, although that is our speculation rather than an announced plan.

The Microduck demonstration from Nvidia, Hugging Face and Pollen Robotics puts home robotics in focus, and we think it could mark the beginning of robots becoming common in homes. The demonstration recalls Star Wars, with the small Microduck resembling R2-D2. Microduck is ready to use out of the box, while the related ReachyMini arrives in parts and takes about four hours to assemble. Orders are taking months rather than days to arrive. We are excited about the products and view them as an early step toward useful robots in the home, rather than just another technology demonstration.

Kalshi is a prediction-market and betting platform that lets users wager on outcomes including elections, and we think the core business works because people like to gamble. The open question is whether they gamble specifically on Kalshi versus peers such as Polymarket or other online gaming providers. Brand, user traction, and sponsorship reach look strong to us. Election odds with real money at risk can be more useful than traditional polls, though overseas capital on domestic races shows how these markets can be distorted. Regulation is the clear risk if a future administration turns less friendly. We also see proprietary value in what people actually bet, not just what they say. We expect both Kalshi and Polymarket to remain relevant and continue to watch their progress, although regulation is an important risk.